Monday 31 December 2012
JIB JAB's REVIEW OF 2012
Posted on 10:00 by Unknown
Sunday 30 December 2012
2012 NFL SEASON WEEK 17
Posted on 06:00 by Unknown
It's the final week of the regular season. 240 regular season games (plus the 2012 Presidential Election) and it has come down to the final 16 games of the regular season.
The AFC has their six teams for the playoffs, but the only issue remaining is the seeding. The Colts and Bengals are locked in as the AFC's Wild Card teams as the 5th and 6th seeds. The Ravens could improve their seeding from the 4 to the 3 seed, but it looks like Baltimore will be playing the first weekend of the playoffs.
New England has the most to gain with a win plus losses by either the Broncos or Texans. Combined with a win plus a loss by one of those teams, New England earns a first round bye into the divisional round. If both the Broncos AND Texans lose, the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxboro, MA. You can't count out the Patriots in the playoffs, but since 2001 New England has appeared in the Super Bowl when they had a bye week or homefield advantage. When New England played in the divisional round during the Belichick-Brady Era, they have not made a Super Bowl appearance. It would be unwise to count New England out of the championship chase.
Denver right now has the AFC's #2 seed. A win would secure that spot. Include that with a Houston loss and the AFC road to New Orleans goes through the Mile High City. Denver currently has the longest winning streak in the NFL at 10 games. Their last loss was against the Patriots in Week 5. The Broncos are a different team now than what we saw at the beginning of the season. Their matchup against Kansas City is a battle between one of the best teams against one of the worst teams. Yeah, the Chiefs sent 5 players to the Pro Bowl but they will likely end up with a Top 5 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft in April 2013.
Houston is currently the AFC #1 seed. Their objective is simple: win and get homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. If Houston loses, then every Texans fan will suddenly be rooting for the Dolphins (New England's opponent) and Chiefs (Denver's opponent). Last time I checked Vegas, the Patriots are a 10-point favorite at home over Miami and the Broncos are a 16-point home favorite over Kansas City. Bleacher Report's NFL picks in those games are showing a unanimous consensus pick for the Patriots and Broncos. It's probably best that the Texans take care of business at Indianapolis. Houston concerns me. They started the season 11-1, but have lost 2 of their last 3 games. The New England game in Week 14 had some parallels to their first loss of the season against Green Bay in Week 6. The Texans can do better, but I don't know if they will make it to the Super Bowl with the way they have been playing lately.
Meanwhile in the NFC, four of the six spots are claimed. Among one of those spots is the NFC #1 seed by the Atlanta Falcons. Are the Falcons the quietest #1 seed in recent memory? The Falcons haven't exactly blown anyone out on their schedule, but that was until their 34-0 win against the Giants in Week 14.
The battle for the NFC's #2 seed is among three teams: Green Bay, San Francisco, and Seattle. Green Bay is probably playing the best among these three followed by Seattle and then San Francisco. San Francisco was part of the best-team-turnover that has taken place over the month of December. At first it was Houston, then New England beat Houston at home. So the Patriots were crowned best team. Then the 49ers beat the Patriots in New England. So the 49ers were the best team. Then the Seahawks obliterated the 49ers recently. And now Seattle is one of the best teams.
Green Bay clawed their way to their second consecutive NFC North Title and is probably in the best position to claim the NFC #2 seed. San Francisco can snatch it with a win plus a Green Bay loss. I wouldn't sleep on any of these teams.
However, should both Green Bay and San Francisco lose their games and Seattle win, then the Seahawks win the NFC West and the NFC #2 seed and this play back from Week 3 has a direct impact on the playoff race:
Seattle at worst will end up as the 5th seed and currently has the title of "TEAM NO ONE WANTS TO FACE IN THE FIRST ROUND."
The two spots remaining are the second Wild Card spot and the NFC East Title. Four teams are in contention for the last Wild Card spot while two teams are in contention for the NFC East.
Currently the Vikings are 9-6 and are in the #6 seed. Again, simple: win and in. Lose and need help from the Lions, Eagles, and Redskins. The Bears who appear to be in another late season free fall need to win their game plus do the unthinkable... root for the Packers.
The Giants who have made a habit of living dangerously over the last few seasons are in again in the same position. They need to win AND root for the Lions, Packers, and Redskins to win their games.
The Redskins have two paths to the playoffs: either beat Dallas to claim the NFC East or get into the playoffs as the 6th seed with losses by the Bears and Vikings.
Beating Dallas would make the entry into the playoffs better.
The other team in contention for the NFC East is the Dallas Cowboys. For the third time in five seasons, Dallas is facing a win-or-go home situation. In 2008, the Cowboys were blown out by the Eagles 44-6 in Philadelphia. Last season the Giants beat Dallas 31-14 in New York as part of the Giants run to their second Super Bowl title in four years. That game was also the final game of the entire regular season, Game 256.
This year's Cowboys-Redskins season finale is in the Game 256 slot.
Washington has won their last 6 games including the 38-31 win over the same Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. Part of the Redskins winning streak is due to the play of quarterback Robert Griffin III who is in the argument with two other playoff bound rookie quarterbacks (Colts Luck and Seahawks Russell) for the NFL's Rookie of the Year Award.
Meanwhile the Cowboys have won 3 of their last 4 games since Thanksgiving Day. Maybe these aren't the same old sorry Cowboys...
Well, this is it.
I now lead Monica by one game with one week to play. Will I hold her off in the final week or does Ms. Roberts claim the title of best NFL prognosticator for 2012 or do we end up tied again?
Here are the picks for Week 17.
WEEK 16: 12-4
TOTAL: 153-87-1
BREAKDOWN OF RECORD
MONICA | NOON | 3PM | NIGHT | HOME | AWAY | TV | ≤ 8 PTS | OT | |
WK 15 | 11-5 | 8-3 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 5-3 | 7-1 | 3-2 | 3-2 | 0-1 |
TOTAL | 152-88-1 | 89-46 | 32-24-1 | 32-17 | 87-38-1 | 67-49 | 65-34 | 68-55-1 | 11-10-1 |
Kickoff Times are Central Time
Picks Indicated in BOLD
Sunday Day Games for the Dallas-Fort Worth Area are indicated with (DFW)
Picks Indicated in BOLD
Sunday Day Games for the Dallas-Fort Worth Area are indicated with (DFW)
SUNDAY (12/30) DOUBLE-DOUBLEHEADER
NOON FOX
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (DFW)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
NOON CBS
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (DFW)
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
3PM FOX
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (DFW)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks
3PM CBS
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (DFW)
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers
SUNDAY NIGHT, GAME 256
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys, NBC 7:20 PM
Tuesday 25 December 2012
Saturday 22 December 2012
2012 NFL SEASON: WEEK 16
Posted on 16:30 by Unknown
Happy Holidays to all.
Anyways let's get down to business...
Monica and I are tied heading into final two weeks of the regular season. In my defense I thought I picked Denver over Baltimore... why...? Whatever, moving on. I made up seven games; I most certainly can make up two in the final two weeks.
Here are the picks for Week 16.
WEEK 15: 8-8
TOTAL: 141-83-1
BREAKDOWN OF RECORD
MONICA | NOON | 3PM | NIGHT | HOME | AWAY | TV | ≤ 8 PTS | OT | |
WK 15 | 10-6 | 6-2 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 5-5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
TOTAL | 141-83-1 | 81-43 | 30-23-1 | 30-17 | 82-35-1 | 60-48 | 62-32 | 65-53-1 | 11-9-1 |
Kickoff Times are Central Time
Picks Indicated in BOLD
Sunday Day Games for the Dallas-Fort Worth Area are indicated with (DFW)
Picks Indicated in BOLD
Sunday Day Games for the Dallas-Fort Worth Area are indicated with (DFW)
SATURDAY NIGHT (12/22)
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions, 7:30 PM ESPN
SUNDAY (12/23) FOX DOUBLEHEADER
NOON FOX
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (DFW)
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans
St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
NOON CBS
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers
San Diego Chargers at New York Jets
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers
3PM FOX
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (DFW)
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals
3PM CBS
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (DFW)
SUNDAY NIGHT
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, NBC 7:20 PM
Monday 17 December 2012
Thursday 13 December 2012
2012 NFL SEASON: WEEK 15
Posted on 16:00 by Unknown
New England reminded the NFL that they still exist with their 42-14 win over Houston on Monday Night. The stories this year has been the prominence of rookie quarterbacks Andrew Luck of the Colts, Robert Griffin III of the Redskins, and Russell Wilson of the Seahawks putting their respective teams into the playoff run; Peyton Manning's comeback from neck surgery leading the Broncos to 10 wins, and Vikings' Adrian Peterson making a push towards 2,000 yards rushing after a knee injury in 2011.
Not much about the Patriots. They are probably the quietest and most dangerous 10-3 team.
Interesting enough, due to scheduling quirks the AFC division champs/leaders are all playing against each other this season. In this category, New England is 2-1 (and would be 3-0 had that field goal in Baltimore went another way). Houston is 2-1 with wins over the Ravens and Broncos. The Ravens are 1-1 (again, could be 0-2 if their game winning field goal in Week 3 went the other way) and the Broncos are 0-2. Baltimore hosts Denver this coming Sunday. This game will have an impact on which side of the playoff bracket these teams will be on in the playoffs: Would you rather be in the bracket with the Patriots or Texans, pick your poison?
New England has the inside track for the #2 seed meaning they would have a bye week and a home playoff game in the divisional round. Houston still controls their destiny for homefield advantage but that can change because the Patriots own the tie-breaker over Houston in head-to-head.
One other thing to point out... since being named the Patriots quarterback in 2001, Tom Brady has led his team to the Super Bowl every season the Patriots were either the #2 or #1 seed.
The Patriots are not going quietly into the night.
Anyways let's get down to business...
I now lead Monica by TWO games with three weeks to go. What a comeback, but it will be for naught if I don't finish with the lead at the end of the season.
WEEK 14: 10-6
TOTAL: 133-75-1
BREAKDOWN OF RECORD
MONICA | NOON | 3PM | NIGHT | HOME | AWAY | TV | ≤ 8 PTS | OT | |
WK 14 | 8-8 | 4-6 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 7-3 | 3-3 | 5-1 | 4-4 | 0-1 |
TOTAL | 131-77-1 | 75-41 | 29-19-1 | 29-15 | 79-32-1 | 55-43 | 60-28 | 64-50-1 | 11-8-1 |
The picks for Week 15 are below.
Kickoff Times are Central Time
Picks Indicated in BOLD
Sunday Day Games for the Dallas-Fort Worth Area are indicated with (DFW)
Picks Indicated in BOLD
Sunday Day Games for the Dallas-Fort Worth Area are indicated with (DFW)
THURSDAY NIGHT (12/13)
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles, 7:20 PM NFL
SUNDAY (12/16) CBS DOUBLEHEADER
NOON CBS
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (DFW)
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
NOON FOX
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (DFW)
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns
3PM CBS
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (DFW)
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
3PM FOX
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers
Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills in Toronto
SUNDAY NIGHT
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots, NBC 7:20 PM
MONDAY NIGHT (12/17)
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans, 7:30 PM ESPN
Thursday 6 December 2012
2012 NFL SEASON: WEEK 14
Posted on 16:50 by Unknown
Let's start talking about the playoffs...
The NFL playoff picture is getting more and more into focus as the regular season enters the fourth quarter. Right now, four teams have qualified for the playoffs; three in the AFC, one in the NFC. Generally the rule of thumb is that every year there is significant turnover among the previous season's playoff teams and the non-playoff teams. There are several factors that play into this: free agency, other front office moves, the NFL's scheduling formula and the placing of specific games when the schedule comes out in the spring, the NFL Draft, injuries to key players, coaching changes, and et cetera.
Plus there aren't as many post-season berths as the other sports leagues. The NBA and (when they start play again) the NHL grants 16 playoff spots to 30 teams. MLB, another 30-team league, grants 10 spots and two teams in each league play a one-and-done game for the Wild Card entry. College basketball offers 68 spots for the men's championship and still 64 for the ladies.
College football, while does not have a formal tournament at this time, has a bastardized form where at least 15 teams have a shot to win the title in any given year. A combination of what conference you play in, where you start in the initial polls, whether you went undefeated, and if you lost the timing of that defeat. Alabama finished the regular season 11-1 and won the Southeastern Conference and finished better in the BCS than Kansas State and Oregon who also had one loss. Their respective loss took place much later than Alabama's loss. It is why they are playing in the BCS Title Game against undefeated Notre Dame.
Oh and there are politics involved in the polling and number crunching...
The NFL expanded to the current 12-team playoff format in 1990. Since 2002 the NFL offers automatic berths for the eight division champions and the top two non-division champions in each league. Emphasis is placed on winning the division because the reward at a minimum getting a home playoff game. There have been instances where a Wild Card team had to go on the road despite having a better record that the division champion. All I have to say is... gotta win your division.
It appears that in 2012 there might be some stability in the playoff team turnover. Out of the three teams that have qualified for the playoffs in the AFC, all three were in the playoffs last season. New England and Denver return as division champions while Houston has only clinched a playoff spot so far.
Since 2002 when the NFL expanded to 32 teams and the current 8 division format, do you know which years had the highest playoff team turnover? 2003 and 2008 when 8 teams that did not make the playoffs the previous season made the playoffs that season. The normal appears to be 6 new playoff teams every year. In some cases an entire conference almost sees complete turnover of teams; it happened twice with the NFC as they saw 5 new teams in the 2005 and 2008 playoffs.
Compared to the era of 1990-2001 when the NFL expanded the playoff format to 12-teams under the 6 division format, the highest number of new playoff teams from one season to the next was 7 (1992, 1999).
If the playoffs started this weekend, there would be three new teams in the playoffs this season; one in the AFC (the Colts) and two in the NFC (Bears and Seahawks). This would be the lowest number of new teams in the playoffs in the post-2002 re-alignment era since the 2004 season which saw 5 new teams. Including the 1990-2001 12-team playoff expansion era, it is the lowest since 1995 which saw 4 new teams enter the playoffs.
7 of the 8 teams who won their division last season would return to the playoffs this year as repeat champions. Atlanta has guaranteed that there will be a new division champion entering the playoffs this season. Right now Atlanta is only new division champion to enter the playoffs compared with last season 7 of the 8 division champions were new division champions. The last time there was no repeat division champion in a playoff season was 1992, 1998, and 2000 in the 1990-2001 12-team playoff expansion era.
It is looking very likely that the AFC playoff spots might be nailed down very soon. If the Colts, Steelers, and Bengals win this coming weekend, all the AFC teams currently with 8 losses are eliminated from playoff contention. Meanwhile the other 15 teams in the NFC are still in the playoff race... yes, even the Panthers and Eagles sitting with identical 3-9 records. One of those teams need to win out plus a lot of help. The Eagles need to win the NFC East to get in while the Seahawks need a lot of help to win the last Wild Card spot.
Anything and everything can happen between now and the end of the season.
Anyways let's get down to business...
Monica’s lead is gone with four weeks to go. What was I thinking picking New Orleans over the Falcons... at home... and Brees tossing 5 interceptions?! Oh well, thank my good Luck that the Colts beat the Lions on the last play of the game and the Browns suddenly finding out that winning football games are fun.
Let's see if we can take the lead this week over Ms. Roberts. :)
Let's see if we can take the lead this week over Ms. Roberts. :)
WEEK 13: 10-6
TOTAL: 123-69-1
BREAKDOWN OF RECORD
MONICA | NOON | 3PM | NIGHT | HOME | AWAY | TV | ≤ 8 PTS | OT | |
WK 13 | 9-7 | 6-3 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 6-2 | 5-4 | 3-3 | 7-5 | 0-2 |
TOTAL | 123-69-1 | 71-35 | 26-19-1 | 26-15 | 72-29-1 | 52-40 | 55-27 | 60-46-1 | 11-7-1 |
The picks for Week 14 are below.
Kickoff Times are Central Time
Picks Indicated in BOLD
Sunday Day Games for the Dallas-Fort Worth Area are indicated with (DFW)
Picks Indicated in BOLD
Sunday Day Games for the Dallas-Fort Worth Area are indicated with (DFW)
THURSDAY NIGHT (12/6)
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders, 7:20 PM NFL
SUNDAY (12/9) FOX DOUBLEHEADER
NOON FOX
Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (DFW)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
St. Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills
NOON CBS
Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
3PM FOX
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (DFW)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
3PM CBS
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (DFW)
SUNDAY NIGHT
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, NBC 7:20 PM
MONDAY NIGHT (12/10)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots, 7:30 PM ESPN
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