SUPER TUESDAY 2012

February was a strange month in the Republican nomination process.

The month started with Romney winning Florida and it looked like he was going to cruise his way to the nomination.

We saw Newt Gingrich fade away to where he is counting on Georgia being his last hope for another surge.

We witnessed the Santorum Surge… giggle… with his wins in Colorado and Minnesota. Bonus was his victory in the Missouri Primary that didn’t count for anything.

Maine’s Caucus produced a result that raised some eyebrows about the integrity of these results.

Michigan was a win in the popular vote for Romney, but in the delegate count it was recorded as a tie… then the Michigan GOP reviewed the results and gave Romney a 2-delegate win.

So… here we are. 10 states, 437 delegates are at stake

POLL CLOSING TIMES

7PM ET Georgia, Vermont, Virginia

7:30PM ET Ohio, North Dakota

8PM ET Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee

11PM ET Idaho (split closing time, polls close at 8PM local time in Idaho)

12AM ET Alaska

So… the predictions for the evening.

Ron Paul will continue his push for delegates, but he will not win a state. Alaska might be his best shot at a win because there is a strong Libertarian/Tea Party streak in the state, but hardly anyone made an appearance there.

Gingrich will win Georgia going away. Home field advantage plays a role there. I don’t think he’ll meet the threshold needed for winner-take-all, but he should be in a close race between him and Santorum.

Speaking of Santorum, I see the former Pennsylvania Senator winning Oklahoma and Tennessee easily. Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK) recently gave his endorsement to Mitt Romney. I don’t see that having an impact on the primary. The impact I have seen on Santorum’s chances of breaking the winner-take-all threshold of 50% in Oklahoma is his performance in Michigan. Santorum made it a close race, but he didn’t pull out the victory. It is expected that he will score in the mid-40s and win a majority of delegates. Same idea with Tennessee.

Santorum should do well in North Dakota. I felt that when he brought out that piece of shale rock during his speech in Michigan he was playing to the gas and oil backers in North Dakota. But… like Alaska and Idaho, North Dakota is a caucus state and I have not seen any data. I am basing my predictions on those states on a combination of the large rural populations and religious demographics.

Now, the supposed front runner: Mitt Romney. He will easily take Vermont and his state of residency, Massachusetts. I expect he should make a clean sweep of New England down the road. Idaho, like Arizona, has a large population of Mormons.

Virginia, thanks to Vice-Presidential candidate Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, will be an easy win for him. The Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich campaigns failed to fill out the paperwork needed to get on the ballot in The Old Dominion State.

So… Ohio…

The last time I checked Nate Silver’s analysis of the Ohio GOP Primary he gave Romney a 65% chance of winning. I saw it as a toss-up after Michigan, but after Washington it progressed to lean Romney.

That might have changed with the median income in Ohio being around $47,000. The national average is about 51K. Romney has had trouble among those making less than 200K.

The most recent exit poll is showing that there is an up-tick of evangelical voters in Ohio. Those factors may play a factor.

In addition, Ohio has national implications. It is expected to be a swing stage in the 2012 Presidential Election. If Romney wins the primary tonight, he has a good shot of winning it in November. If he underperforms or worse and he is the nominee, then he has a hole to climb out of.

So… here we go…

ROMNEY

Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia, Idaho

He will claim 200 delegates.

SANTORUM

Alaska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Ohio

Ohio will be a lot closer that what is expected.

GINGRICH

Georgia… no brainer…

PAUL

No states, but he will be competitive in Alaska.